Ag Weather Forum              10/11 09:33

   Drought, Fire Threats Expand in High Plains 

   Warmth and dryness have brought on a dramatic increase in drought since 
early summer. 

Bryce Anderson
Ag Meteorologist Emeritus

   Drought dominates the scene as the U.S. High Plains region goes into the 
last half of the fall season. The 6-state region encompasses the states of 
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and Wyoming. The U.S. 
Drought Monitor assessed the region back in early June as having 11.5% in the 
drought classes of D1-D4. D1 is Moderate Drought; D2 is Severe Drought; D3 is 
Extreme Drought; D4 is Exceptional Drought.

   In early June, the hardest-hit drought area was in southern and southwestern 
Kansas. Now, in October, the drought area has ballooned by more than 500%. The 
Drought Monitor for Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, places almost 60% -- 59.81% -- of 
this 6-state region in D1-D4 drought. The region's percentage in D2 to D4 
drought -- severe, extreme or exceptional drought -- is more than 10 times the 
number just three months ago at 23.28% compared with just 2.62% in the June 4 
Drought Monitor.

   Drought Monitor comments for the week of Oct. 8 emphasized how the 
combination of a lack of precipitation and extremely warm conditions have 
produced this sharp increase in drought:

   "Since early June, precipitation has totaled less than half of normal 
through most of east-central and northeastern Wyoming, and shorter-term 
deficits of varying intensities envelop most of the High Plains Region. In 
addition, dryness was exacerbated by high temperatures averaging at least 5 
deg. F above normal last week region-wide, and more than 10 deg. F above normal 
in most of Colorado and Wyoming, plus a few other scattered patches."

   The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), a division of 
NOAA, added more harsh statistics on both warmth and dryness in a bulletin 
issued Friday, Oct. 10:

   "Near-record or record-breaking temperatures and precipitation deficits 
defined September in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska," the 
bulletin said. "Near-term forecasts predict continued much-above-normal 
temperatures and absent precipitation. The forecasted conditions could lead to 
continued very high evaporative demand across the region, worsening drought 
conditions." The NOAA/NIDIS bulletin also predicts an increased fire risk 
across much of the entire central U.S. during the rest of the month.

   For DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart, who is based in northern Wyoming, 
the building drought and fire conditions are literally in her backyard.

   "We are extremely dry here ... we don't have to cull any cows, but it's been 
a long time since we've gotten some moisture," she noted in an email. Stewart 
also has relatives who are battling the Elk Fire in Sheridan County, Wyoming. 
"They're going on two weeks now of battling the fire ... Ranchers are taking 
turns watching and battling the fire at night so that it doesn't get away from 
anyone and potentially hit some homes," Stewart wrote.

   Forecasts for the last half of October indicate some prospects for near to 
above normal precipitation; however, normal precipitation in late October is 
less than earlier in the fall season, so even above-normal amounts of 
precipitation are likely to maintain a rainfall deficit across the High Plains 
region.

   The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is available here: 
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?conus  

   The full NOAA/NIDIS bulletin is available here: 
https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-early-warni
ng-southern-plains-missouri-basin-10-10-24

   Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.Anderson@dtn.com




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