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USDA Reports Summary 08/12 12:00
USDA Raises Corn, Soybean Production With More Planted Acres for Both Crops
USDA found an additional 1.4 million planted acres for both the corn and
soybean crops to increase the corn crop slightly and boost the soybean crop to
the largest in U.S. history.
By DTN Staff
This article was originally published at 11:02 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, Aug.
12. It was last updated with additional information at 12:00 p.m. CDT on
Wednesday, Aug. 12.
**
OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA found an additional 1.4 million planted acres for both
the corn and soybean crops to increase the corn crop slightly and boost the
soybean crop to the largest in U.S. history.
USDA boosted corn acres by 1.4 million acres (ma) to 96.7 ma and increased
production to 16.013 billion bushels (bb) despite dropping the corn yield by
2.3 bushels per acre (bpa).
USDA also increased soybean planted acres by 1.4 million to 86.8 ma to
increase production to a projected record of 4.519 bb.
USDA released its August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Wednesday.
Wednesday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, neutral for
soybeans and neutral to slightly bullish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett
Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were slightly bullish for
corn, neutral for soybeans and neutral for wheat.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be
sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Wednesday's
reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
CORN
USDA increased the 2026-27 planted acres to 96.7 ma, up 1.4 ma from earlier
planting reports. USDA also increased projected harvested acres to 88.6 ma.
The report cuts the yield forecast by 2.3 bpa to 180.7 bpa.
That puts total crop production at 16.013 billion bushels, up slightly from
July. If that holds, the 2026-27 corn crop would be the second largest on
record, trailing only last year's crop.
Beginning stocks were lowered from 2.02 bb to 1.945 bb.
On the demand side, 2026-27 total feed and residual use is pegged at 6.1
billion bushels. Ethanol use is projected at 5.6 bb. Total domestic use is
forecast at 13.055 bb.
Corn exports for the 2026-27 crop are projected at 3.275 bb, up 75 million
bushels (mb) from July.
Total usage comes in at 16.33 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop are projected at 1.653 bb, down from 1.79
bb last month.
The farmgate price for the 2026-27 crop is projected at $4.50 a bushel, up
10 cents from last month.
Looking at the 2025-26 "old-crop" corn, ending stocks were lowered from 2.02
bb down to 1.945 bb, due mainly to a 75-mb increase in exports. The export
total was raised from 3.325 bb to 3.4 bb, a record. The farmgate price is $4.15
a bushel.
Globally, USDA beginning stocks for the 2026-27 corn crop are forecast at
298.83 million metric tons (mmt), up slightly from July. Production was raised
to 1,298.88 mmt. Exports globally are projected at 210.48 mmt. That puts
projected global ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop at 274.66 mmt, down
slightly from July. In the European Union, USDA lowered EU corn production to
50.2 mmt with imports increased 1 mmt to 23.5 mmt. USDA also increased
Ukraine's production 1.8 mmt to 31.8 mmt, but lowered Ukraine's exports 1 mmt
to 22 mmt.
The 2025-26 global corn numbers, Brazil's production for the 2025-26 crop
was forecast at 140 mmt, up 2 mmt from July, but exports were lowered 1 mmt to
42 mmt. Argentina's production was projected at 63 mmt, with exports at 45 mmt.
Ukraine's production was 30.9 mmt, with exports at 23 mmt.
SOYBEANS
For the 2026-27 marketing year, USDA increased the U.S. soybean crop
forecasts from last month's report.
USDA estimates farmers will grow 4.519 bb of soybeans, using a trendline
yield estimate of 52.7 bpa, planted acres at 86.8 million acres with harvested
at 85.8 million acres. That would be the largest crop in U.S. history.
Domestic ending stocks came in up, at 320 million bushels. USDA sees total
supplies up slightly at 4.869 bb. Crush demand increased to 2.78 bb, while
exports remained unchanged at 1.66 mb. Seed use is forecast at 73 mb and
residual at 37 mb.
USDA's national average farmgate price estimate remains unchanged at $11.40
per bushel.
For the old crop, 2025-26 marketing year, domestic ending stocks fell to 325
mb. Exports were pegged the same at 1.52 bb. USDA held the national average
farmgate price at $10.40 per bushel.
Globally, new-crop ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year were
forecast at 124.21 mmt, up slightly from last month. USDA anticipates unchanged
Brazilian production at 186 mmt of soybeans, with Argentina at 50 mmt.
Global old-crop ending stocks for 2025-26 were estimated at 125.12 mmt, down
slightly from last month.
USDA increased Brazil's production to 180.5 mmt with exports at 115 mmt.
Argentina's production decreased to 49.5 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels, compared to
1.536 bb in the July report.
USDA estimates ending stocks for 2026-27 wheat at 717 million bushels, a
decrease from 722 mb in July.
Wheat farmgate prices were pegged at $6.20 per bushel, up from $6.00 in July.
The average wheat yield is expected to be 47.8 bushels per acre, down 0.1
bushel from the previous forecast and down 5.5 bushels from 2025.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 990 mb, down slightly from the July 1
forecast and down 29% from 2025. The average yield is forecast at 47.0 bpa, up
0.3 bushel from last month but down 7.9 bushels from 2025.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 66.4 mb, down 6% from the previous
forecast and down 23% from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 38.4
bushels per harvested acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast and
down 2.2 bushels from 2025.
Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 474 mb, down less
than 1% from the previous forecast and down 5% from 2025. The average yield is
expected to be 51.1 bpa, down 1.2 bushels from the previous forecast and down
0.6 bushel from 2025.
Globally, USDA estimates wheat production at 819.3 million metric tons in
August, a decrease from 819.97 mmt in July.
USDA pegs European Union production at 134.2 mmt, down from 136.0 mmt last
month. Russian production was estimated at 88.5 mmt in August. Chinese
production is pegged at 141 mmt.
Total global wheat exports were estimated at 212.71 mmt in August, compared
to 213.05 mmt in July.
Russian exports were pegged at 46 mmt, a decrease from 47.5 mmt in July.
Ukraine exports are estimated at 13.5 mmt, down from 14.5 mmt last month.
USDA estimates wheat world ending stocks at 273.25 mmt, increased from
272.84 mmt in July.
European Union ending stocks are estimated at 14.03 mmt and Russia's at
13.59 mmt.
LIVESTOCK
Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mostly bearish outlook for the cattle and
beef markets of 2026, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 321 million pounds, as fed cattle
slaughter speeds are lower than anticipated, and the market isn't seeing as
many cows slaughtered either. The quarterly steer price projections for 2026
and 2027 were disheartening compared to last month's estimates, as steers in
the third quarter are expected to average $242 (down $13 from last month),
steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $245 (down $10
from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to
average $245 (down $5 from last month's estimates) and steer prices in the
second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $250 (down $5 from last month's
estimate). Cattle exports for 2026 are unchanged from last month, but cattle
imports for 2026 are increased by 73 million pounds with the border reopening
to Mexican cattle on Aug. 24."
Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mixed outlook for the pork and hog markets
for 2026, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2026 was lowered by 79 million pounds as slaughter
speeds are lower and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly hog prices saw
mostly supportive news as hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $70
(up $1 from last month's report), hogs in the fourth quarter of 2026 are
expected to average $59 (up $1 from last month's estimates), hogs in the first
quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month) and
hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68 (unchanged from
last month). Pork imports were increased by 1 million pounds, and pork exports
were 62 million pounds for 2026."
**
Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, Aug.
12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events.
Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing
at their convenience. Register here for Wednesday's USDA WASDE webinar:
https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars/.
U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2026-27
Aug Avg High Low Jul 2025-26
Corn 16,013 15,944 16,160 15,780 16,000 17,021
Soybeans 4,519 4,469 4,523 4,389 4,475 4,262
All Wheat 1,531 1,527 1,566 1,498 1,536 1,985
Winter 990 986 1,007 965 990 1,402
HRW 463 468 480 456 471 804
SRW 287 286 295 281 287 353
White 240 231 235 228 232 244
Othr Spring 474 470 499 445 475 497
Durum 66 70 71 65 71 86
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2026-27 (WASDE)
Aug Avg High Low Jul 2025-26
Corn 180.7 182.5 184.8 180.5 183.0 186.5
Soybeans 52.7 52.9 53.5 52.0 53.0 53.0
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
Aug Avg High Low Jul
Corn 1,945 2,010 2,136 1,960 2,020
Soybeans 325 324 340 303 330
Wheat 920 921 935 920 920
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2026-27
Aug Avg High Low Jul
Corn 1,653 1,730 1,986 1,600 1,790
Soybeans 320 302 358 270 310
Wheat 717 718 766 692 722
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
Aug Avg High Low Jul
Corn 298.8 298.7 304.0 296.4 298.7
Soybeans 125.1 125.6 127.5 124.7 125.3
Wheat 280.2 286.0 290.0 279.0 279.0
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2026-27
Aug Avg High Low Jul
Corn 274.7 273.4 276.1 271.0 275.3
Soybeans 124.2 124.4 125.5 122.5 124.2
Wheat 273.3 271.9 274.1 270.0 272.8
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