Let's take a look at some of the changes in both U.S. and world numbers on the USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports released Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. We'll start with corn.

CORN:

With traders looking for a slight decline in yield from the September report, the October WASDE instead reported a 0.2-bushel-per-acre (bpa) gain to a record 183.8 bpa. That led to a crop of 15.203 billion bushels (bb), 17 million bushels (mb) higher than in September on unchanged harvested acres of 82.7 million. Beginning stocks were lowered by 52 mb based on the lower Sept. 1 grain stocks estimate on the Sept. 30 report. Ending stocks for 2024-25 corn were 1.999 bb, 58 mb lower than in September, but just above trade expectations. The Dow Jones pre-report survey of traders predicted ending stocks of 1.940 bb. Corn exports for 2024-25 were increased by 25 mb to 2.325 bb to account for the strong early sales pace. The season average price for corn was left untouched at $4.10 per bushel.

On the world side, higher carry-in stocks from both Argentina and Brazil and a reduction in Brazil corn exports of 1 million metric tons (mmt) gave South America a larger supply. Argentine carry-in stocks rose from 1.54 mmt to 4.09 mmt (161 mb) and Brazil stocks were up 1 mmt to 5.84 mmt (230 mb). Russian and Ukraine corn production fell by 500,000 metric tons (mt) and 1 mmt to 23 mmt (905 mb) and 26.2 mmt (1.03 bb), respectively, while Egypt's corn production fell another 500,000 mt to 7 mmt (275 mb). China corn imports were dropped 2 mmt to 19 mmt (747 mb), and there could be more cuts coming in that category. Argentine feed use jumped by 1.7 mmt to 12 mmt (472 mb). Ukraine exports were cut by 1 mmt to 23 mmt (905 mb) to account for the smaller crop. The net effect was that world ending stocks of corn fell to 306.5 mmt (12.06 bb) from 308.35 mmt in September.

Shortly after the report, the focus turned back to weather, where in the U.S. it remains perfect for harvest for the next 10 days, and at midday, the GFS weather model expanded rain for Brazil in the 6- to 10-day forecast.

December corn, which was trading close to unchanged prior to the report, closed down 2 3/4 cents at $4.15 3/4.

SOYBEANS:

As with corn, USDA reported a record large soybean yield of 53.1 bpa. That was down 0.1 bpa from the September report, but still produced a record large crop of 4.586 bb, up 10% from last year and close to what was expected by traders. Harvested acres at 86.3 million were left unchanged. Ending stocks were pegged at 550 mb, about 8 mb above where traders had estimated and the largest carryout in six years. The average season price for beans was left unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal and bean oil season average prices also remained the same at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.

On the world front there were only minimal changes, with both Argentine and Brazil carry-in stocks slightly higher, sending world ending soybean stocks a bit higher to 134.6 mmt (4.95 bb) -- a record large carryout. For Argentina and Brazil, despite ongoing dryness, new-crop estimates were left unchanged at 51 mmt (1.87 bb) and a record large 169 mmt (6.2 bb), respectively. Should Mother Nature cooperate, that would mean an additional 19 mmt (698 million bushels) of supply from South America.

November soybeans, which had been trading up 5 1/2 cents before the report release, ended up closing down 9 1/4 cents at $10.05 1/2.

WHEAT:

U.S. wheat production was decreased by 11 mb to 1.971 bb. Imports were raised 10 mb to 115 mb and feed and residual use rose by 10 mb, while exports were left unchanged. Ending stocks dropped more than expected, by 16 mb to 812 mb, and that is down 17% from last year. By-class changes included ending stocks for spring wheat falling 12 mb to 194 mb; soft red stocks down 15 mb; durum stocks 9 mb higher. The season average price for wheat was left unchanged at $5.70 per bushel. Planted and harvested acres were increased on wheat. Harvested acres rose 600,000 acres to 38.5 million acres, but yield fell one bushel to 51.2 bpa.

On the world side, there were several minor changes. European Union wheat production was lowered by 1 mmt to 123 mmt (4.52 bb); Russian production was lowered the same amount to 82 mmt (3.01 bb); and India's production declined 700,000 mt to 113.3 mmt (4.16 bb). Ukraine and Brazil wheat production rose by 500,000 to 600,000 mt. Ukraine exports increased by 1 mmt to 16 mmt (588 mb) and EU exports fell by 1.5 mmt to 30 mmt (1.1 bb). World ending stocks of wheat rose by a modest half million tons to 257.72 mmt (9.47 bb).

Kansas City December wheat was trading down close to 5 cents prior to the report and finished down 6 1/2 cents at $6.04 1/2.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

The October WASDE report came and went without a lot of fanfare. The report came in fairly close to pre-report expectations and once the report was over, traders seemed to focus again on weather and harvest. Perfect weather in the heart of the Corn Belt ensures a rapid harvest pace and in Brazil the midday weather forecast showed much better rain chances next week. In wheat, there are some hard red winter rain chances near Oct. 20 and better rain chances for dry areas of southern Russia and eastern Ukraine next week.

In short, the report was somewhat of a non-event on Friday, telling us little that we didn't already know.

Dana Mantini can be reached at dana.mantini@dtn.com

Follow Dana Mantini on Twitter @mantini_r

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